Capitalism at its Strongest

At some point the world will have to stop depending upon fossil fuels for its dominant energy supply.  Society can choose whether to address the issue early or wait until events force it to act.  Right now,  not many things are driving markets or policymakers to change.  Because right now, the truth is that fossil fuels are abundant, cheap, and established.

However, there are reasons to transition away from fossil fuels.  Nations that deploy the next generations of power distribution infrastructure and transportation vehicles will create new industries and capture those employment opportunities.  They will also shield themselves from the effects of fluctuating crude oil prices and take the initiative in solving the climate change problem.

These reasons are largely political.  The free market system responds quickly to economic forces, but it is not strongly affected by political ones.  This means that politicians and governments must start the ball rolling.  Government-lead technological innovation is not new.  The US Space Program began as a government initiative, but it spawned many new technologies, private corporations, and other projects.

Converting the world from fossil fuels is going to take an effort on par with the Space Program.  Collaboration will be required among universities, research centers, the oil industry, the automobile industry, and government policymakers. The resources of large corporations and the quick-strike attitude of startups will both be necessary.  The conversion will take commitment, perseverance, and large investments.  It will demand long-term thinking, risk-taking, and cutting-edge science.

Above all, it will take leadership.

Along the way fortunes will be made.  The chance of making these fortunes will be vital to sustain the effort.  Political ideology and government grants will not draw-out the capitalist spirit that will win.  The global energy business is capitalism at its strongest, and this business is ruled by fossil fuels.  Successful alternative energy must be more competitive than fossil fuels.  It must beat them in abundance, cost, and return-on-investment.

We Need a Set of Solutions, Not Just One

The world's energy demand continues to grow, and fossil fuels continue to dominate that growing demand, but fossil fuels have real drawbacks.  This situation cannot continue indefinitely.  We can wait until it's a crisis, or we can be smart and tackle the problem before then.

A coordinated attack with three different time horizons is necessary:

Short Term (next 10 years): 

• Improve existing efficiencies - Small, incremental efficiency improvements often don't require technical breakthroughs, just a modernization of what's already in place.  Throughout the power generation infrastructure, old equipment needs to be replaced, losses need to be reduced, and waste needs to be elimated.  With automobiles, gas mileage needs to be improved, limits need to be set on vehicle sizes and weights, and vehicle inspection programs need to be more rigorous. 
• Move toward mass transit - Mass transit networks need building that are so fast, stylish, and service-oriented that people find them more attractive than driving.  North America especially needs high-speed trains that connect major cities, and many North American cities need greatly expanded mass transit systems.
• Improve cleanliness - Convert existing systems to fuels that burn cleaner and generate fewer emissions.
• Remove CO2 from emissions - Deploy methods that capture carbon dioxide from exhaust gases and vent stacks. 

Very little new technology is required to implement these short term solutions.  All that's needed are incentives throughout local, national, and global arenas.

Medium Term (next 20 years): 

• Develop and demonstrate non-fossil fuel alternatives for power generation and transportation - The key to this point is the word "demonstrate", and that means building  semiworks scale facilities and prototype vehicle fleets that repeatedly operate reliabily and safely for several continuous months.  To have any real chance for commercial deployment, these facilitites and prototypes must not only prove that the technologies work, but also that they work with operating costs equal to or cheaper than their fossil fuel competitors.
• Develop technology to remove CO2 from the atmosphere that's deployable on a global scale.

Some technologies (wind turbines, solar grids) are already in the demonstration phase, but the operating cost challenges still need to be overcome.  Other technologies (nuclear) are already commercialized, but they lack strong enough champions to gain worldwide traction.  Still others (biofuels) are working toward commercilization but are too dependent upon government help.  For new technologies to be sustainable, government mandates and subsidies must be unnecessary.

Long Term (next 50 years):

• Establish new infrastructure to meet the world's energy needs without fossil fuels - Some of the things imaginable include high-speed train networks equal in scale to the Interstate Highway system; nationwide service stations for maintaining solar-charged, battery-powered automobiles; port facilities for docking and maintaining nuclear-powered cargo ships; networks for recycling spent nuclear fuel and batteries.
• Remove CO2 from the atmosphere until it's at pre-Industrial Revolution levels.  Imagine a future debate among politicians and scientists about when to stop depleting CO2 from the atmosphere.

There is not a single path away from fossil fuel dominance but a set of solutions.  There will not be a single point in time when fossil fuels become obsolete but a series of things over decades that relegates fossil fuels to an ever smaller piece of the energy mix.  As long as fossil fuels are available they will have a place in the world's energy supply.  The idea is to create more competitive alternatives until fossil fuels are phased out like the horse and carriage.

Fossil Fuels Dominate

The chart below shows how the world gets its energy.  This chart is for 2011, but it is typical of every year.

Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal) account for 87.1% of the total energy consumed.  Clearly, fossil fuels dominate, but there are good reasons for it.

Benefits of fossil fuels:

• They are plentiful.  The world still has diverse and abundant supplies of crude oil, natural gas, and coal.  While there are certainly fewer reserves than there used to be, we are not imminently in danger of running out.
• They are economical.  The biggest reason that alternative fuels haven't displaced fossil fuels is that fossil fuels are cheaper. 
• They are well established.  Entire industries and infrastructures are built around fossil fuels.  It's going to take a lot of time, effort, and initiative to break out of this box.

Yet, fossil fuels also have drawbacks:

• They will run out.  Unless something changes, society will eventually deplete the world of its fossil fuels. 
• They are concentrated in certain parts of the world.  Vast amounts of oil, gas, and coal are controlled by a handful of countries.  These countries that have abundant fossil fuel resources are typically wealthy, and the countries that don't have them are dependent upon those that do.
• They contribute to climate change.  Burning fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide, and there is ample evidence that over a century of doing this has affected global climate patterns.  Although no one knows when, eventually there will be a reckoning.

The World's Energy Demand Is Growing Unchecked

The graph below shows the world's total energy consumption since 1965.

During this 46-year period, the global energy demand more than tripled, and there is no reason to believe this demand will stop growing.  A few simple-sounding questions emerge:

• How much can the world's energy demand continue to grow?
• Where will the energy to meet this increasing demand come from?
• What happens when demand outgrows supply?

Introduction

This blog will discuss current topics and trends in meeting the world's energy needs for the next 100 years.  It will cover business, technical, and political issues, but it will emphasize things that are clean, sustainable, and practical alternatives to fossil fuels.

I am a strong proponent of both energy conservation and alternative energy, which may surprise some people because I work for one of the world's largest oil companies and have spent 20 years in the petroleum industry.  However, when you see firsthand how much effort is required to find, produce, transport, and refine hydrocarbons, it breaks your heart to see them being wasted.